Starting June 1, the Fed began reducing its balance sheet holdings of U.S. Treasuries by $30 billion a month for three months. Thereafter, it will double its reduction of U.S. Treasuries by $60 billion per month beginning in the fourth month. For its mortgage-backed securities, the first three months will see $17.5 billion roll off … Continue reading “How Will the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Tightening Impact Markets?”

With the S&P down nearly 20 percent and the Nasdaq index down nearly 4,000 points since the beginning of 2022, one could say the indices are in a bear market. While we can’t predict the future, economic indicators can offer some insight into the likelihood of the market’s future performance. There are many ways to … Continue reading “Have the Markets Bottomed or is it a Bear Market Rally?”

The Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Consumer Price Index rose by 8.5 percent year-over-year ending March 2022, leading most economists to agree that inflation is going to be with us for a while. With inflation seeming not to abate, at least in the near term, how will different types of investments react to inflation that is … Continue reading “How Will the Federal Reserve React to Increasing Inflation?”

According to the March 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the forecast is for high energy prices in 2022. The report found that Brent crude oil, used as a benchmark ex-U.S., is expected to see prices of $116 per barrel in Q2 of 2022. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the … Continue reading “How Will Oil Prices and Consumer Spending Impact Markets?”

There’s much uncertainty surrounding if, how and when the Federal Reserve will raise its rates, end its bond and mortgage-backed security purchases, and wind down its balance sheet. For the March 16 Fed Meeting, the CME FedWatch Tool has a 47.9 percent probability of a 25 to 50 basis point increase, and a 52.1 percent … Continue reading “How Soon and Fast Will the Fed Raise Rates?”

According to the World Bank, there’s a mixed picture for commodities in 2022. Globally, prices for crude oil are expected to hit $74 per barrel during 2022, compared to 2021’s $70 price tag. This is attributed to greater economic activity as the world continues its reopening. Metal commodities, on the other hand, are projected to … Continue reading “How are Commodity Prices Expected to Impact Earnings in 2022?”

According to a Dec. 15 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement from the Federal Reserve, the federal funds target range will remain at 0 percent to 0.25 percent. Beginning in January, the FOMC will reduce its monthly purchase of assets to $40 billion in Treasury securities and $20 billion in mortgage-backed securities, with tapering expected … Continue reading “How Will Increased Tapering Impact Markets in 2022?”